------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\user\Dropbox\REOs and Development\ISQ Submission August 2019\ISQ Final Submission\Log of Sta
> tistical Results July 2020.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   9 Jul 2020, 11:14:05

. do "C:\Users\user\Dropbox\REOs and Development\ISQ Submission August 2019\ISQ Final Submission\Results do file I
> SQ Final.do"

. *** Yoram Z. Haftel, Daniel Wajner, and Dan Eran. 2020 The Short and Long(er) of It: The Effect of Hard Times on
>  Regional Institutionalization. International Studies Quarterly ***
. *** Replication of Results ***
. 
. use "C:\Users\user\Dropbox\REOs and Development\ISQ Submission August 2019\ISQ Final Submission\Crises and REOs 
> ISQ Final July 2020.dta", clear
(ISQ Final July 2020)

. 
. ** Table 1 - IMRI & Fixed Effects**
. 
. * Model 1 - IMRI & crisis years t-1 to t-5
. xi: xtreg imri crises_weighted_new tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe ro
> bust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5514                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1243                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2305                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      13.73
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0460                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                        (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
               imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
crises_weighted_new |   1.038258   .7298401     1.42   0.166    -.4544321    2.530949
         tradeshare |  -.0572217   .1095849    -0.52   0.606    -.2813479    .1669046
             concen |  -7.015123   5.588181    -1.26   0.219    -18.44424    4.413989
          dem_dummy |   1.400575   .9422766     1.49   0.148    -.5265971    3.327747
           civilmem |  -.3681961   .1740136    -2.12   0.043     -.724094   -.0122982
             ln_dev |   .9541965   1.437013     0.66   0.512    -1.984825    3.893218
          ln_devstd |   .4098804   .4189319     0.98   0.336    -.4469315    1.266692
        _Iyear_1987 |   .7212926   .5928889     1.22   0.234    -.4913013    1.933886
        _Iyear_1992 |   1.595833   .8250194     1.93   0.063    -.0915209    3.283187
        _Iyear_1997 |   2.553684   .7277289     3.51   0.001     1.065311    4.042057
        _Iyear_2002 |   3.351698   .8692324     3.86   0.001     1.573918    5.129478
        _Iyear_2007 |   4.148055   .9748621     4.26   0.000     2.154238    6.141872
        _Iyear_2012 |   5.397192   1.140966     4.73   0.000     3.063653     7.73073
        _Iyear_2017 |   5.484666   1.230863     4.46   0.000     2.967269    8.002063
              _cons |  -1.666641    10.1371    -0.16   0.871    -22.39934    19.06606
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |  5.2606452
            sigma_e |  2.0578816
                rho |  .86728378   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m1

. 
. * Model 2 - IMRI & crisis years t-1 to t-2
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_12 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5459                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1538                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2570                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      12.25
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0273                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_12 |  -.2884159   .7951787    -0.36   0.719    -1.914739    1.337907
  tradeshare |  -.0437366   .1119466    -0.39   0.699    -.2726931    .1852198
      concen |  -6.766192   5.618257    -1.20   0.238    -18.25682    4.724434
   dem_dummy |   1.352865   .9479617     1.43   0.164    -.5859341    3.291665
    civilmem |  -.3641371     .17532    -2.08   0.047    -.7227067   -.0055675
      ln_dev |   .9574649   1.434293     0.67   0.510    -1.975993    3.890923
   ln_devstd |   .4139289   .4186804     0.99   0.331    -.4423687    1.270226
 _Iyear_1987 |   .8603917   .5590992     1.54   0.135    -.2830946    2.003878
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.822594   .8226633     2.22   0.035     .1400584    3.505129
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.666844   .6935942     3.84   0.001     1.248284    4.085403
 _Iyear_2002 |   3.394021   .8754317     3.88   0.001     1.603562     5.18448
 _Iyear_2007 |   4.044588   .9891111     4.09   0.000     2.021629    6.067547
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.366467    1.14335     4.69   0.000     3.028053    7.704881
 _Iyear_2017 |   5.487551   1.247533     4.40   0.000      2.93606    8.039042
       _cons |  -1.851849   10.18052    -0.18   0.857    -22.67336    18.96966
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.1612573
     sigma_e |  2.0704353
         rho |  .86138517   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m2

. 
. * Model 3 - IMRI & crisis years t-4 to t-5
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5544                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1433                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2484                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      15.92
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0348                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   1.840524   .7246342     2.54   0.017     .3584802    3.322567
  tradeshare |  -.0496641   .1065543    -0.47   0.645    -.2675921    .1682638
      concen |  -7.039788   5.569646    -1.26   0.216    -18.43099    4.351416
   dem_dummy |   1.435146   .9350784     1.53   0.136    -.4773042    3.347596
    civilmem |  -.3757774   .1686712    -2.23   0.034    -.7207487   -.0308061
      ln_dev |    .994474   1.452409     0.68   0.499    -1.976036    3.964984
   ln_devstd |    .353394   .3998994     0.88   0.384    -.4644921     1.17128
 _Iyear_1987 |   .6354194   .6156416     1.03   0.311     -.623709    1.894548
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.669926   .8038215     2.08   0.047     .0259269    3.313926
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.524624   .7253892     3.48   0.002     1.041037    4.008212
 _Iyear_2002 |   3.279015   .8820472     3.72   0.001     1.475026    5.083004
 _Iyear_2007 |   4.094134   .9671895     4.23   0.000     2.116009    6.072258
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.340075   1.126874     4.74   0.000     3.035358    7.644792
 _Iyear_2017 |   5.536825   1.214789     4.56   0.000     3.052302    8.021347
       _cons |  -1.568247   10.07821    -0.16   0.877    -22.18049      19.044
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.1964197
     sigma_e |  2.0509505
         rho |  .86521919   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m3

. 
. esttab m1 m2 m3 using tableA.rtf, replace coeflabel (crises_weighted_new "Economic Crisis (t-1 to t-5)" crises_t
> _12 "Economic Crises (t-1 to t-2)" crises_t_45 "Economic Crises (t-4 to t-5)" tradeshare "Trade Share" concen "C
> oncentration" dem_dummy "Democracy Dummy" civilmem "Civil War" ln_dev "Development" ln_devstd "Development Diver
> sity" ipd_std "Ideal Point Diversity" duration "Duration" members "Members" _cons "Constant")r2 star(~ 0.2 * 0.1
>  ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
(output written to tableA.rtf)

. 
. ** Table 2 - IMSCOPE & Fixed Effects**
. 
. * Model 4 - IMSCOPE & crisis years t-1 to t-5
. xi: xtreg imscope crises_weighted_new tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe
>  robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5230                                         min =          4
     between = 0.2543                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.3424                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =       9.02
corr(u_i, Xb)  = 0.0496                         Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                        (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    |               Robust
            imscope |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
crises_weighted_new |   .6420106    .591024     1.09   0.286    -.5667692     1.85079
         tradeshare |   -.002199   .1043004    -0.02   0.983    -.2155172    .2111192
             concen |  -6.360368   5.014589    -1.27   0.215    -16.61635    3.895617
          dem_dummy |   .8141673   .7609045     1.07   0.293    -.7420572    2.370392
           civilmem |   -.184176   .1529464    -1.20   0.238    -.4969864    .1286344
             ln_dev |   1.109294   1.194517     0.93   0.361    -1.333769    3.552356
          ln_devstd |   .2075529   .3779563     0.55   0.587    -.5654544    .9805602
        _Iyear_1987 |   .6447936   .5887296     1.10   0.282    -.5592936    1.848881
        _Iyear_1992 |   1.182243   .7842376     1.51   0.142    -.4217028    2.786189
        _Iyear_1997 |   2.208717   .6905816     3.20   0.003     .7963191    3.621115
        _Iyear_2002 |   2.808504   .8034335     3.50   0.002     1.165298     4.45171
        _Iyear_2007 |   3.325483   .8908693     3.73   0.001     1.503451    5.147516
        _Iyear_2012 |    4.38347   1.037313     4.23   0.000     2.261926    6.505014
        _Iyear_2017 |   4.417524   1.107736     3.99   0.000      2.15195    6.683099
              _cons |  -4.337402   8.757354    -0.50   0.624     -22.2482     13.5734
--------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
            sigma_u |  4.1357163
            sigma_e |  1.8178995
                rho |  .83807274   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m4

. 
. * Model 5 - IMSCOPE & crisis years t-1 to t-2
. xi: xtreg imscope crises_t_12 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5204                                         min =          4
     between = 0.2767                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.3617                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =       7.83
corr(u_i, Xb)  = 0.0538                         Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     imscope |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_12 |  -.3638387   .6641617    -0.55   0.588    -1.722202    .9945245
  tradeshare |   .0071954   .1052783     0.07   0.946    -.2081229    .2225138
      concen |  -6.193542   5.043983    -1.23   0.229    -16.50965    4.122562
   dem_dummy |     .77776   .7655097     1.02   0.318    -.7878831    2.343403
    civilmem |  -.1831669   .1551521    -1.18   0.247    -.5004886    .1341547
      ln_dev |   1.107996   1.195643     0.93   0.362    -1.337368    3.553359
   ln_devstd |   .2107974   .3765716     0.56   0.580    -.5593781    .9809729
 _Iyear_1987 |    .727134   .5688637     1.28   0.211    -.4363229    1.890591
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.340904   .7797632     1.72   0.096     -.253891    2.935699
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.274643   .6588595     3.45   0.002     .9271244    3.622163
 _Iyear_2002 |   2.830346   .8065975     3.51   0.001     1.180669    4.480023
 _Iyear_2007 |   3.255767   .9025344     3.61   0.001     1.409877    5.101657
 _Iyear_2012 |   4.357562   1.041228     4.19   0.000      2.22801    6.487113
 _Iyear_2017 |   4.428149    1.12293     3.94   0.000       2.1315    6.724799
       _cons |  -4.435405   8.800914    -0.50   0.618     -22.4353    13.56449
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  4.0735347
     sigma_e |  1.8228993
         rho |  .83315657   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m5

. 
. * Model 6 - IMSCOPE & crisis years t-4 to t-5
. xi: xtreg imscope crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5254                                         min =          4
     between = 0.2654                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.3525                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      10.66
corr(u_i, Xb)  = 0.0491                         Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     imscope |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   1.239394   .7116718     1.74   0.092    -.2161385    2.694926
  tradeshare |   .0022384   .1014259     0.02   0.983    -.2052008    .2096776
      concen |  -6.389574   5.015419    -1.27   0.213    -16.64726     3.86811
   dem_dummy |    .839482   .7611219     1.10   0.279    -.7171871    2.396151
    civilmem |   -.189633   .1508075    -1.26   0.219     -.498069    .1188029
      ln_dev |   1.135952   1.207567     0.94   0.355      -1.3338    3.605704
   ln_devstd |    .169356   .3649012     0.46   0.646    -.5769508    .9156628
 _Iyear_1987 |   .5789972   .6099217     0.95   0.350    -.6684327    1.826427
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.221235   .7660307     1.59   0.122    -.3454742    2.787943
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.182574   .6911721     3.16   0.004     .7689683     3.59618
 _Iyear_2002 |    2.75686   .8147227     3.38   0.002     1.090565    4.423155
 _Iyear_2007 |   3.294377   .8863057     3.72   0.001     1.481679    5.107076
 _Iyear_2012 |   4.346108    1.03296     4.21   0.000     2.233468    6.458747
 _Iyear_2017 |   4.453245   1.094065     4.07   0.000     2.215632    6.690859
       _cons |  -4.259537   8.713759    -0.49   0.629    -22.08117     13.5621
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  4.1048389
     sigma_e |  1.8133023
         rho |  .83672147   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m6

. 
. esttab m4 m5 m6 using tableB.rtf, replace coeflabel (crises_weighted_new "Economic Crisis (t-1 to t-5)" crises_t
> _12 "Economic Crises (t-1 to t-2)" crises_t_45 "Economic Crises (t-4 to t-5)" tradeshare "Trade Share" concen "C
> oncentration" dem_dummy "Democracy Dummy" civilmem "Civil War" ln_dev "Development" ln_devstd "Development Diver
> sity" ipd_std "Ideal Point Diversity" duration "Duration" members "Members" _cons "Constant")r2 star(~ 0.2 * 0.1
>  ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
(output written to tableB.rtf)

. 
. ** Table 3 - IMRI and crisis years t-4 to t-5, additional models **
. 
. * Model 7 - IMRI & crisis years t-4 to t-5, random effects
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Random-effects GLS regression                   Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5443                                         min =          4
     between = 0.3356                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.4081                                         max =          8

                                                Wald chi2(14)     =     205.18
corr(u_i, X)   = 0 (assumed)                    Prob > chi2       =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |    1.72756    .736766     2.34   0.019     .2835256    3.171595
  tradeshare |   .0524538   .0886964     0.59   0.554    -.1213879    .2262954
      concen |  -6.837333   4.105543    -1.67   0.096    -14.88405    1.209383
   dem_dummy |   1.224777   .8504638     1.44   0.150     -.442101    2.891656
    civilmem |  -.4157006   .1529544    -2.72   0.007    -.7154857   -.1159156
      ln_dev |   1.179144   .8874338     1.33   0.184     -.560194    2.918482
   ln_devstd |   .0262702   .4040282     0.07   0.948    -.7656105    .8181508
 _Iyear_1987 |   .5768589   .5884481     0.98   0.327    -.5764782    1.730196
 _Iyear_1992 |    1.59849   .7745666     2.06   0.039     .0803673    3.116613
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.308069   .6990571     3.30   0.001      .937942    3.678196
 _Iyear_2002 |   3.054832    .835023     3.66   0.000     1.418217    4.691447
 _Iyear_2007 |    3.92956   .8850862     4.44   0.000     2.194823    5.664297
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.089197   1.033309     4.93   0.000     3.063948    7.114446
 _Iyear_2017 |    5.20606   1.078108     4.83   0.000     3.093006    7.319113
       _cons |  -1.707181   5.922318    -0.29   0.773    -13.31471    9.900349
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  4.1174496
     sigma_e |  2.0509505
         rho |  .80120794   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m7

. 
. * Model 8 - IMRI & crisis years t-4 to t-5, 1980s excluded
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd i.year if year>1990, i(nbloc) f
> e robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)
note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity
note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        172
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5220                                         min =          4
     between = 0.3796                                         avg =        5.7
     overall = 0.0180                                         max =          6

                                                F(12,29)          =       7.29
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.4062                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   1.091147   .5259835     2.07   0.047     .0153903    2.166905
  tradeshare |  -.0515488   .0863239    -0.60   0.555     -.228101    .1250035
      concen |   2.812008   4.798481     0.59   0.562    -7.001987      12.626
   dem_dummy |   1.865791   .7359776     2.54   0.017     .3605481    3.371035
    civilmem |   .2491111   .1519191     1.64   0.112    -.0615984    .5598207
      ln_dev |  -.6431208   1.309022    -0.49   0.627    -3.320371    2.034129
   ln_devstd |    .275799    .488047     0.57   0.576    -.7223691    1.273967
 _Iyear_1987 |          0  (omitted)
 _Iyear_1992 |  -4.271401   .8964688    -4.76   0.000    -6.104885   -2.437916
 _Iyear_1997 |  -3.665048   .6841328    -5.36   0.000    -5.064257   -2.265839
 _Iyear_2002 |  -2.709551   .6880271    -3.94   0.000    -4.116725   -1.302378
 _Iyear_2007 |  -1.521195    .504522    -3.02   0.005    -2.553059   -.4893319
 _Iyear_2012 |  -.1839834   .2501997    -0.74   0.468    -.6956992    .3277323
 _Iyear_2017 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |   12.50604    9.02102     1.39   0.176    -5.944019    30.95609
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  6.8301501
     sigma_e |  1.7078658
         rho |  .94115518   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m8

. 
. * Model 9 - IMRI & crisis years t-4 to t-5, ipd_std included
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ipd_std i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5631                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1842                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2817                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      15.38
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0454                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   1.806515   .7066557     2.56   0.016     .3612419    3.251788
  tradeshare |  -.0501954   .1016068    -0.49   0.625    -.2580046    .1576139
      concen |  -7.490171   5.421719    -1.38   0.178    -18.57883    3.598489
   dem_dummy |   1.255446   .9216775     1.36   0.184    -.6295958    3.140489
    civilmem |  -.3796696   .1819663    -2.09   0.046    -.7518324   -.0075069
      ln_dev |   1.511497   1.357915     1.11   0.275    -1.265751    4.288745
     ipd_std |  -2.972765   2.240722    -1.33   0.195    -7.555556    1.610026
 _Iyear_1987 |   .7008306   .6014141     1.17   0.253    -.5291993     1.93086
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.606888   .8183075     1.96   0.059    -.0667385    3.280515
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.380515   .7817854     3.04   0.005     .7815845    3.979446
 _Iyear_2002 |   3.100972   .9282175     3.34   0.002     1.202554     4.99939
 _Iyear_2007 |   3.849267   1.029762     3.74   0.001     1.743167    5.955367
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.182503   1.158916     4.47   0.000     2.812253    7.552752
 _Iyear_2017 |   5.403379   1.249374     4.32   0.000     2.848123    7.958635
       _cons |  -1.681755   9.647974    -0.17   0.863    -21.41408    18.05057
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.0724618
     sigma_e |  2.0307795
         rho |  .86185856   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m9

. 
. * Model 10 - IMRI & crisis years t-4 to t-5, Members included 
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd members i.year, i(nbloc) fe rob
> ust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5557                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1427                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2525                                         max =          8

                                                F(15,29)          =      13.16
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0395                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   1.788169   .6989153     2.56   0.016     .3587261    3.217611
  tradeshare |  -.0640672   .1106861    -0.58   0.567    -.2904457    .1623112
      concen |  -7.130295   5.474214    -1.30   0.203    -18.32632     4.06573
   dem_dummy |   1.490256   .9524209     1.56   0.129    -.4576631    3.438176
    civilmem |  -.3535045   .1659495    -2.13   0.042    -.6929094   -.0140996
      ln_dev |   1.199389   1.484919     0.81   0.426    -1.837612     4.23639
   ln_devstd |   .2322195   .3714017     0.63   0.537    -.5273824    .9918213
     members |   .0749206   .1426657     0.53   0.603    -.2168636    .3667048
 _Iyear_1987 |   .5930935   .6279642     0.94   0.353    -.6912375    1.877425
 _Iyear_1992 |    1.58753   .8737509     1.82   0.080    -.1994915    3.374551
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.414832    .841407     2.87   0.008     .6939614    4.135702
 _Iyear_2002 |   3.132993   1.039768     3.01   0.005     1.006427    5.259558
 _Iyear_2007 |   3.935981   1.112555     3.54   0.001     1.660551    6.211412
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.170893   1.260511     4.10   0.000     2.592859    7.748928
 _Iyear_2017 |   5.341061   1.360061     3.93   0.000     2.559425    8.122697
       _cons |  -2.618525   10.23686    -0.26   0.800    -23.55526    18.31821
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.2041073
     sigma_e |  2.0540634
         rho |  .86521026   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m10

. 
. esttab m7 m8 m9 m10 using tableC.rtf, replace coeflabel (crises_weighted_new "Economic Crisis (t-1 to t-5)" cris
> es_t_12 "Economic Crises (t-1 to t-2)" crises_t_45 "Economic Crises (t-4 to t-5)" tradeshare "Trade Share" conce
> n "Concentration" dem_dummy "Democracy Dummy" civilmem "Civil War" ln_dev "Development" ln_devstd "Development D
> iversity" ipd_std "Ideal Point Diversity" members "Members" _cons "Constant")r2 star(~ 0.2 * 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.0
> 1)
(output written to tableC.rtf)

. 
. *** Tables for the Online Appendix ***
. 
. **Table A1**
. 
. * Median GDPpc (logged)
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem log_gdppc_md ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robu
> st
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5548                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1424                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2450                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      11.29
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0243                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   1.854089   .7351636     2.52   0.017     .3505103    3.357667
  tradeshare |  -.0467531   .1083056    -0.43   0.669    -.2682629    .1747567
      concen |  -7.129602   5.635985    -1.27   0.216    -18.65649    4.397282
   dem_dummy |   1.404595   .9450818     1.49   0.148    -.5283141    3.337504
    civilmem |  -.3744607   .1694477    -2.21   0.035    -.7210203   -.0279012
log_gdppc_md |   .5411203   .5793033     0.93   0.358    -.6436879    1.725929
   ln_devstd |   .5817936   .4956851     1.17   0.250    -.4319962    1.595583
 _Iyear_1987 |   .6920056   .5962156     1.16   0.255    -.5273922    1.911403
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.795558   .7660732     2.34   0.026     .2287628    3.362354
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.584415   .6959159     3.71   0.001     1.161107    4.007723
 _Iyear_2002 |    3.39812   .8496842     4.00   0.000      1.66032    5.135919
 _Iyear_2007 |   4.218328   .9090908     4.64   0.000     2.359029    6.077628
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.469992    1.03382     5.29   0.000     3.355592    7.584392
 _Iyear_2017 |   5.731421   1.082043     5.30   0.000     3.518396    7.944447
       _cons |     .54981   5.542262     0.10   0.922    -10.78539    11.88501
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.1922397
     sigma_e |  2.0500136
         rho |  .86513805   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m11

. 
. * Democracy measure of Cheibub et al. 
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_CGV civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)
note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        152
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5814                                         min =          2
     between = 0.1435                                         avg =        5.1
     overall = 0.2164                                         max =          6

                                                F(12,29)          =          .
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.3006                        Prob > F          =          .

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   1.581972   .7086532     2.23   0.033     .1326137    3.031331
  tradeshare |  -.0670194   .1043912    -0.64   0.526    -.2805235    .1464846
      concen |  -5.387007   3.599516    -1.50   0.145    -12.74884     1.97483
     dem_CGV |  -1.846052   2.104223    -0.88   0.388    -6.149672    2.457567
    civilmem |   -.703009   .1599038    -4.40   0.000    -1.030049    -.375969
      ln_dev |   2.526676   1.152645     2.19   0.037      .169252    4.884099
   ln_devstd |   .4757527   .3789721     1.26   0.219    -.2993323    1.250838
 _Iyear_1987 |   .5810687   .4713604     1.23   0.228    -.3829716    1.545109
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.835781   .8369594     2.19   0.036     .1240064    3.547555
 _Iyear_1997 |   3.163167    .848378     3.73   0.001     1.428039    4.898295
 _Iyear_2002 |   3.880149   .8769315     4.42   0.000     2.086622    5.673675
 _Iyear_2007 |   4.433692   1.036399     4.28   0.000     2.314019    6.553366
 _Iyear_2012 |   4.748244   .8241204     5.76   0.000     3.062728    6.433759
 _Iyear_2017 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |   -14.1988   8.594373    -1.65   0.109    -31.77626    3.378672
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.2056797
     sigma_e |  1.7409256
         rho |  .89940824   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m12

. 
. * Civil war - dummy variable
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem_dummy ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robu
> st
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5483                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1149                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2220                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =       9.40
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0763                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                   (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               |               Robust
          imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
   crises_t_45 |    1.63487   .6532545     2.50   0.018     .2988142    2.970925
    tradeshare |  -.0503082   .1069237    -0.47   0.642    -.2689917    .1683754
        concen |  -5.958119   5.759762    -1.03   0.309    -17.73815    5.821916
     dem_dummy |   1.513011   1.055189     1.43   0.162    -.6450919    3.671114
civilmem_dummy |  -.7689553   .7135035    -1.08   0.290    -2.228234    .6903232
        ln_dev |   1.139662   1.546668     0.74   0.467    -2.023629    4.302953
     ln_devstd |   .4114668   .3964231     1.04   0.308    -.3993095    1.222243
   _Iyear_1987 |   .6166476   .6067808     1.02   0.318    -.6243585    1.857654
   _Iyear_1992 |   1.657787   .7770603     2.13   0.041     .0685201    3.247054
   _Iyear_1997 |   2.376303   .7860908     3.02   0.005     .7685669    3.984039
   _Iyear_2002 |   3.093823   .9865295     3.14   0.004     1.076144    5.111503
   _Iyear_2007 |   3.925079   1.048589     3.74   0.001     1.780473    6.069686
   _Iyear_2012 |   5.102185   1.218031     4.19   0.000     2.611033    7.593337
   _Iyear_2017 |   5.215529   1.321592     3.95   0.000      2.51257    7.918488
         _cons |  -3.541027   11.13376    -0.32   0.753    -26.31212    19.23006
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       sigma_u |  5.3121593
       sigma_e |  2.0649718
           rho |  .86872858   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m13

. 
. * Ideological convergene 
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd execrlc_cnvrg i.year, i(nbloc) 
> fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5620                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1454                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2548                                         max =          8

                                                F(15,29)          =      12.53
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0833                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              |               Robust
         imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  crises_t_45 |   1.659628   .7313749     2.27   0.031      .163798    3.155457
   tradeshare |  -.0405768   .1062064    -0.38   0.705    -.2577932    .1766396
       concen |  -7.621077   5.872257    -1.30   0.205    -19.63119    4.389037
    dem_dummy |   1.382965   .9967665     1.39   0.176     -.655651    3.421582
     civilmem |  -.4047856   .1653893    -2.45   0.021    -.7430446   -.0665266
       ln_dev |   1.189421   1.495345     0.80   0.433    -1.868903    4.247745
    ln_devstd |   .2996792   .4117839     0.73   0.473    -.5425134    1.141872
execrlc_cnvrg |  -1.194866   .8031573    -1.49   0.148    -2.837508    .4477746
  _Iyear_1987 |   .6572887   .6009268     1.09   0.283    -.5717447    1.886322
  _Iyear_1992 |   1.640527    .768831     2.13   0.041      .068091    3.212963
  _Iyear_1997 |   2.539475    .718683     3.53   0.001     1.069603    4.009346
  _Iyear_2002 |   3.293835   .8672676     3.80   0.001     1.520074    5.067596
  _Iyear_2007 |   4.095463    .961739     4.26   0.000     2.128486     6.06244
  _Iyear_2012 |   5.383619   1.088738     4.94   0.000       3.1569    7.610338
  _Iyear_2017 |    5.58253   1.175671     4.75   0.000     3.178013    7.987047
        _cons |  -1.430502   10.24792    -0.14   0.890    -22.38986    19.52885
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      sigma_u |  5.2259157
      sigma_e |  2.0394157
          rho |  .86783304   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m14

. 
. * Interaction of economic convergence and crisis
. xi: xtreg imri crises_t_45 execrlc_cnvrg c.execrlc_cnvrg#c.crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_d
> ev ln_devstd i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5628                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1386                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2484                                         max =          8

                                                F(16,29)          =      10.72
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0854                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                                  (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              |               Robust
                         imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                  crises_t_45 |   2.489809   1.364562     1.82   0.078    -.3010342    5.280652
                execrlc_cnvrg |  -1.093833   .8027209    -1.36   0.183    -2.735582    .5479154
                              |
c.execrlc_cnvrg#c.crises_t_45 |  -1.056456     1.6541    -0.64   0.528    -4.439471     2.32656
                              |
                   tradeshare |  -.0444285   .1077299    -0.41   0.683    -.2647609    .1759039
                       concen |  -7.678334   5.920033    -1.30   0.205    -19.78616    4.429493
                    dem_dummy |   1.426368   1.006621     1.42   0.167    -.6324036    3.485139
                     civilmem |  -.3956374   .1699325    -2.33   0.027    -.7431883   -.0480864
                       ln_dev |   1.176282   1.494693     0.79   0.438    -1.880709    4.233273
                    ln_devstd |   .2897419   .4169578     0.69   0.493    -.5630326    1.142516
                  _Iyear_1987 |    .654733    .608533     1.08   0.291    -.5898568    1.899323
                  _Iyear_1992 |   1.641779   .7716087     2.13   0.042     .0636622    3.219896
                  _Iyear_1997 |    2.53247   .7191854     3.52   0.001      1.06157    4.003369
                  _Iyear_2002 |   3.319921   .8795299     3.77   0.001     1.521081    5.118762
                  _Iyear_2007 |   4.105022   .9677455     4.24   0.000     2.125761    6.084284
                  _Iyear_2012 |   5.401239   1.095901     4.93   0.000      3.15987    7.642608
                  _Iyear_2017 |   5.586186    1.18079     4.73   0.000       3.1712    8.001172
                        _cons |  -1.296059   10.19446    -0.13   0.900    -22.14607    19.55395
------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                      sigma_u |  5.2490562
                      sigma_e |  2.0439224
                          rho |  .86833939   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m15

. 
. esttab m11 m12 m13 m14 m15 using tableOA1.rtf, replace coeflabel (crises_t_45 "Economic Crises (t-4 to t-5)" tra
> deshare "Trade Share" concen "Concentration" dem_dummy "Democracy Dummy" civilmem "Civil War" civilmem_dummy "Ci
> vil War Dummy" ln_dev "Development" log_gdppc_md "Median GDPPC" ln_devstd "Development Diversity" dem_CGV "Democ
> racy Cheibub" execrlc_cnvrg "Ideological Convergence" _cons "Constant")r2 star(~ 0.2 * 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
(output written to tableOA1.rtf)

. 
. ** Table A2 **
. 
. * Logged DV *
. xi: xtreg ln_imri crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.4794                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1464                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2343                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      12.07
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.2232                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     ln_imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   .3386581   .1008222     3.36   0.002     .1324535    .5448627
  tradeshare |  -.0087952   .0110467    -0.80   0.432    -.0313883    .0137978
      concen |  -.6847043   1.036906    -0.66   0.514    -2.805416    1.436007
   dem_dummy |   .3034562   .1638737     1.85   0.074    -.0317031    .6386155
    civilmem |  -.0942846   .0352407    -2.68   0.012    -.1663599   -.0222093
      ln_dev |   .1100212   .3057632     0.36   0.722    -.5153348    .7353771
   ln_devstd |   .1879876   .1249395     1.50   0.143    -.0675424    .4435175
 _Iyear_1987 |   .0426645   .0861652     0.50   0.624    -.1335631    .2188921
 _Iyear_1992 |   .0939707   .1511133     0.62   0.539    -.2150907    .4030321
 _Iyear_1997 |   .1563997   .1375475     1.14   0.265    -.1249165     .437716
 _Iyear_2002 |   .2638502   .1528023     1.73   0.095    -.0486656    .5763661
 _Iyear_2007 |   .3421224   .1711604     2.00   0.055    -.0079398    .6921846
 _Iyear_2012 |   .4738388   .1834402     2.58   0.015     .0986614    .8490161
 _Iyear_2017 |   .5181372   .2033945     2.55   0.016     .1021487    .9341257
       _cons |  -.3501916   1.794225    -0.20   0.847    -4.019793     3.31941
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  .76583631
     sigma_e |  .30933272
         rho |  .85973636   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m16

. 
. * DV with a focus on monetary cooperation, etc. 
. xi: xtreg immein crises_t_45 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.3431                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1008                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.1456                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =       4.04
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0245                        Prob > F          =     0.0007

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
      immein |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crises_t_45 |   .0512607   .1438954     0.36   0.724    -.2430385    .3455598
  tradeshare |   .0366969   .0177455     2.07   0.048     .0004033    .0729906
      concen |   .2047148   .7994444     0.26   0.800    -1.430333    1.839762
   dem_dummy |  -.0945964   .1488258    -0.64   0.530    -.3989793    .2097864
    civilmem |    .007558   .0380321     0.20   0.844    -.0702263    .0853423
      ln_dev |  -.1246214    .259157    -0.48   0.634    -.6546571    .4054142
   ln_devstd |   .1701789   .1247484     1.36   0.183    -.0849602     .425318
 _Iyear_1987 |   .0635802   .1337606     0.48   0.638     -.209991    .3371514
 _Iyear_1992 |   .1305859   .1470334     0.89   0.382    -.1701311    .4313029
 _Iyear_1997 |   .1737158    .178978     0.97   0.340    -.1923353     .539767
 _Iyear_2002 |   .2543022    .181615     1.40   0.172    -.1171421    .6257466
 _Iyear_2007 |   .4075881   .1753975     2.32   0.027       .04886    .7663162
 _Iyear_2012 |   .4321306   .1677965     2.58   0.015     .0889483     .775313
 _Iyear_2017 |   .4774629   .1802793     2.65   0.013     .1087502    .8461755
       _cons |   .1456662   1.892102     0.08   0.939    -3.724118     4.01545
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  1.2135678
     sigma_e |  .35729499
         rho |  .92023294   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m17

. 
. * Short-term crisis - t-1
. xi: xtreg imri crisis_t_1 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5462                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1480                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2516                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      11.38
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0301                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  crisis_t_1 |   .8723005   1.051333     0.83   0.413    -1.277918    3.022519
  tradeshare |  -.0467822   .1104359    -0.42   0.675     -.272649    .1790847
      concen |   -6.77268   5.623188    -1.20   0.238    -18.27339    4.728032
   dem_dummy |   1.368409   .9338413     1.47   0.154    -.5415113    3.278329
    civilmem |  -.3651884   .1706587    -2.14   0.041    -.7142247   -.0161521
      ln_dev |   .9819927   1.437798     0.68   0.500    -1.958634    3.922619
   ln_devstd |    .391289   .4263843     0.92   0.366    -.4807649    1.263343
 _Iyear_1987 |   .8710459   .5619986     1.55   0.132    -.2783704    2.020462
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.748348    .806017     2.17   0.038     .0998585    3.396838
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.681082   .6963445     3.85   0.001     1.256898    4.105267
 _Iyear_2002 |    3.40553   .8749009     3.89   0.001     1.616157    5.194903
 _Iyear_2007 |   4.071042   .9997605     4.07   0.000     2.026303    6.115782
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.399025   1.155518     4.67   0.000     3.035726    7.762324
 _Iyear_2017 |   5.472104    1.25377     4.36   0.000     2.907857    8.036352
       _cons |  -1.875965   10.17283    -0.18   0.855    -22.68173     18.9298
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.1801024
     sigma_e |  2.0697913
         rho |   .8623271   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m18

. 
. * long-term crisis - t-4 to t-6 
. xi: xtreg imri crisis_t_46 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        210
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5565                                         min =          4
     between = 0.1413                                         avg =        7.0
     overall = 0.2480                                         max =          8

                                                F(14,29)          =      17.93
corr(u_i, Xb)  = -0.0458                        Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crisis_t_46 |   1.966286   .7394192     2.66   0.013     .4540035    3.478568
  tradeshare |  -.0487757   .1067113    -0.46   0.651    -.2670248    .1694735
      concen |  -7.047151   5.536124    -1.27   0.213     -18.3698    4.275493
   dem_dummy |   1.568922   .9136509     1.72   0.097    -.2997034    3.437548
    civilmem |  -.3600191   .1625999    -2.21   0.035    -.6925733   -.0274649
      ln_dev |   .9825281   1.428168     0.69   0.497    -1.938404     3.90346
   ln_devstd |   .4134978   .3979944     1.04   0.307    -.4004922    1.227488
 _Iyear_1987 |   .5579241   .6159603     0.91   0.373    -.7018561    1.817704
 _Iyear_1992 |   1.637028   .8019025     2.04   0.050    -.0030463    3.277103
 _Iyear_1997 |   2.352997   .7683933     3.06   0.005     .7814564    3.924538
 _Iyear_2002 |   3.205254   .8899024     3.60   0.001       1.3852    5.025309
 _Iyear_2007 |   4.021242   .9730705     4.13   0.000     2.031089    6.011394
 _Iyear_2012 |   5.284388   1.129926     4.68   0.000     2.973431    7.595346
 _Iyear_2017 |   5.477572   1.219524     4.49   0.000     2.983365     7.97178
       _cons |  -1.978819   10.13152    -0.20   0.847    -22.70011    18.74247
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.2095313
     sigma_e |  2.0460013
         rho |  .86636628   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m19

. 
. * long-term crisis - t-6 to t-7 
. xi: xtreg imri crisis_t_67 tradeshare concen dem_dummy civilmem ln_dev ln_devstd  i.year, i(nbloc) fe robust
i.year            _Iyear_1982-2017    (naturally coded; _Iyear_1982 omitted)
note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity

Fixed-effects (within) regression               Number of obs     =        193
Group variable: nbloc                           Number of groups  =         30

R-sq:                                           Obs per group:
     within  = 0.5045                                         min =          4
     between = 0.0719                                         avg =        6.4
     overall = 0.1509                                         max =          7

                                                F(13,29)          =      11.12
corr(u_i, Xb)  = 0.0354                         Prob > F          =     0.0000

                                 (Std. Err. adjusted for 30 clusters in nbloc)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
        imri |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
 crisis_t_67 |   1.808572   .9165191     1.97   0.058    -.0659202    3.683064
  tradeshare |  -.0494293   .1116924    -0.44   0.661    -.2778659    .1790072
      concen |  -3.534881   6.289627    -0.56   0.578    -16.39861    9.328849
   dem_dummy |   1.666312   .9652151     1.73   0.095    -.3077747    3.640398
    civilmem |  -.0999424   .2016144    -0.50   0.624    -.5122903    .3124054
      ln_dev |   .1344012   1.479673     0.09   0.928     -2.89187    3.160673
   ln_devstd |   .4704575   .6592607     0.71   0.481     -.877882    1.818797
 _Iyear_1987 |  -4.807962   1.232432    -3.90   0.001    -7.328568   -2.287356
 _Iyear_1992 |  -3.898928     .99447    -3.92   0.000    -5.932848   -1.865009
 _Iyear_1997 |  -3.298689   .8077719    -4.08   0.000    -4.950768    -1.64661
 _Iyear_2002 |  -2.315368   .7289582    -3.18   0.004    -3.806255   -.8244811
 _Iyear_2007 |  -1.493075   .5232257    -2.85   0.008    -2.563192    -.422958
 _Iyear_2012 |  -.1042801    .234402    -0.44   0.660    -.5836861    .3751259
 _Iyear_2017 |          0  (omitted)
       _cons |   8.005684   10.36536     0.77   0.446    -13.19386    29.20523
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
     sigma_u |  5.6217355
     sigma_e |  1.9805419
         rho |  .88958802   (fraction of variance due to u_i)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. est sto m20

. 
. esttab m16 m17 m18 m19 m20 using tableOA2.rtf, replace coeflabel (crises_t_45 "Economic Crises (t-4 to t-5)" cri
> sis_t_46 "Economic Crisis (t-4 to t-6)" crisis_t_67 "Economic Crisis (t-6 to t-7)" crisis_t_1 "Economic Crises (
> t-1)" tradeshare "Trade Share" concen "Concentration" dem_dummy "Democracy Dummy" civilmem "Civil War" civilmem_
> dummy "Civil War Dummy" ln_dev "Development" ln_devstd "Development Diversity" _cons "Constant")r2 star(~ 0.2 * 
> 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
(output written to tableOA2.rtf)

. 
. 
. 
end of do-file

. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  C:\Users\user\Dropbox\REOs and Development\ISQ Submission August 2019\ISQ Final Submission\Log of Sta
> tistical Results July 2020.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   9 Jul 2020, 11:14:27
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
